Labour In Good Spirits

Labour Party President Mike Williams has admitted feeling “miserable” about Labour’s position at the start of the year. With opinion polls showing them trailing National and a number of issues dogging the government, anyone could be forgiven for thinking things were turning to custard. However, four months on and Williams says Labour is in very good spirits, and for good reason too. Labour has continued to roll out progressive policies that actually make a difference to New Zealanders and, perhaps more importantly for the looming election, John Key has finally come under the sort of scrutiny that was so lacking when he began his tenure as Leader of the Opposition.

In an article by Audrey Young in the Weekend Herald, Williams states:

“In 1990 we knew we were going to get thrashed. There was all that ‘change the leader, change the policy’ kind of stuff. There is certainly not that sense. I think there is a sense out in the party that we are in with a chance.”  

If the recent criticism of Key’s leadership abilities and the improvement in Labour’s fortunes in recent opinion polls is anything to go by, then it would appear that they are in with more than a “chance”. And all indications are that Labour will be a formidable opponent come November.

Michael Cullen has also stated that 2007 was probably a year Labour would rather forget, and although things may have got off to a bad start, he too says Labour’s is in high spirits at the moment, citing three main reasons for this:

The first is general satisfaction within the caucus and wider party that the Government is sticking to its core principles. “There is a feeling we have been doing good things for New Zealand, which is consistent with our traditions and our philosophy.”

The second is stable leadership. “There is no leadership issue. It is absolutely obvious to anybody that Helen is absolutely secure in her position. That issue is not even discussed in the Labour caucus. It is not a matter for any speculation.”

Reason No. 3 is that the party has regained policy momentum. “After some problems last year, I think we feel that we are re-establishing slowly that image of competence, of getting on with the business of Government and, indeed, to a significant extent we’ve captured the policy agenda so far this year – we have been leading on policy, which is a happier place to be in than feeling as though you are being entirely reactive.”

Labour certainly has been leading on the policy front, in contrast to National which has yet to reveal any substantial policy to the electorate, and will no doubt continue to do this leading up to this year’s election. If there is one thing that Labour needs to win the election, it is a strong morale within their ranks and a belief in the policies they have been rolling out. And they have this by the bucket load.

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Key Feeling The Heat

John Armstrong has a good piece in the Weekend Herald on the recent quietness that has decended over National in the past week. With the party grabbing few, if any, headlines  and Key not asking a single question in the House, Armstrong concludes that National has gone into a state of “suspended animation”.

Of course, this has only increased Labour’s drive to put pressure on Key, and it appears to be paying off, with Key chosing to release National’s $50 victim compensation scheme in Auckland rather than Wellington. On this, Armstrong says:

“Labour was not alone in seeing the decision to release the policy in Auckland as a sign of Key’s gun shyness in the face of the Wellington political media following his widely publicised slip-up over National’s Treaty policy and the fuzziness which surrounded National’s stance on the sale of shares in Auckland Airport to foreign interests.”

It certainly seems as though the pressure finally being applied by the media has taken Key by surprise, and his strategy now is to avoid them altogether. Of course, National has been under the somewhat arrogant illusion that they could simply coast along during the election and gain the Treasury benches without letting the public know what eaxctly it intended to do once there. However, recent weeks have delivered a wake-up call to the party, and they appear to have lost the political agenda altogether. As Armstrong says:

“The Labour fightback has seen National lose control of the political agenda which it was setting at the start of the year.

Labour is largely dictating things, partly by using the advantage of Government incumbency and partly through a steady stream of fresh, politically seductive policy initiatives, many of which have the secondary purpose of trying to force Key to say whether they would survive under a National-led Government.”

And since National has moved toward the left and flip-flopped on a number of Labour initiatives, Labour’s strategy has been to continue releasing attractive policies that National can’t commit to and thus make it increasingly difficult for Key to keep National centrist. On this Armstrong states:

“Labour, meanwhile, is playing an extremely clever game. Key may have moved National to the centre to take votes off Labour. Labour is now trying to crowd him out by putting up centrist policies and challenging him to back them.

If he does, National’s brand distinction fades and its flexibility to spend money is further constrained. If he doesn’t, he is painted as extreme and out of touch with middle NZ.

Likewise, Cullen’s admission his tax cuts will be smaller than National’s may have been a similar ploy.

If Cullen can make his cuts as large as possible, that puts the onus on National to deliver even bigger ones.

If National doesn’t do so, it again loses vital brand distinction.

If National is a lot more generous, it becomes easier for Cullen to brand his opponents as fiscally irresponsible.”

This is a very clever strategy indeed, and one suspects that in the coming weeks and months things will certainly become a lot more difficult for Key than they have been in the past. Far from coasting along to victory, National will be forced to prove to New Zealand what it is they have to offer and actually work to win the public’s vote. It appears this has come as quite a shock to many within the party’s “inner circle”.