Key’s Hollow Promise On Winston

John Key has stated that Winston Peters will not be a Minister in a National-lead government unless he can give a “credible explanation” for the discrepancies between his version of events surrounding the Owen Glen affair, and the letter from Owen Glen himself. Of course, this is just a hollow promise and hopefully the electorate will see it for that.

Firstly, one can never rule Winston Peters out, and there is always the possibility that he will hold the balance of power after the election. It is unlikely that the Greens and the Maori Party will support a National government, so if National is left without enough support to take the Treasury benches it is highly unlikely they will forgo the opportunity simply because Key made some half-hearted pledge not to work with Winston.

Secondly, Key has left himself an out. As long as Winston can provide a “credible” explanation, then there are no barriers to him joining a National Cabinet. Going by what passes as “credible” within the National Party these days, it shouldn’t be hard for Winston to meet this test.

Thirdly, ruling out working with Winston does not necessarily rule out working with New Zealand First.

Key is obviously trying to take some sort of moral high ground in this whole affair but, like anything that comes from his Crosby-Textor handbook, it is simply a façade to gain public confidence. Key might well be cutting of his nose to spite his face.   

 

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Fixing Loose Lips

                                        Thanks To SO For The Use Of Her Cartoon!

The Real Cost Of Cheese

Thanks To SO For The Use Of Her Cartoon!

Garth George: The Great-Grandfather Of NZ Journalism

Garth George, allegedly the only nonagenarian working in New Zealand journalism, reminds me somewhat of Victor Muldrew from One Foot In The Grave, longing for a return to the good ol’ days while the world continues to move forward without him. Poor guy. The latest issue to get Garth’s Y-fronts in a knot is the controversy surrounding the “secret” recordings made at National’s recent conference. Decrying this incident in today’s Herald, Garth says:

“Politics in New Zealand, despicable as it has been for decades, has reached a new low with the secret taping of private conversations at last weekend’s National Party conference”

Well actually Garth, I thought that low would have been reached when National’s mates the Exclusive Brethren decided to wage a secret campaign against Labour at the last election. Or when National’s mates the Exclusive Brethren paid private investigators to follow Helen Clark and dig up dirt on her. Or when National’s mate Ian Wishart launched his vicious attack on Helen Clark and her husband. Or when secret recordings of Mike Williams were made at Labour’s election congress earlier this year. But then again, it is well known that, like the National Party, geriatrics do have a relatively short and selective memory, so we’ll let you off for that one Garth.

Garth then takes a swipe at those media scoundrels, even his own employer, saying:

“And why the media, including this newspaper, would deign to use word for word such questionable material, and in addition do their damnedest to attribute to the victims, deputy leader Bill English and party veteran Lockwood Smith, some hidden and sinister political programme”

It seems that under that stern exterior, Mr George has a rather soft spot for poor National Party MPs caught, albeit “questionably”, lying to the public. They are, after all, simply “victims” of some bigger scheme to ensure the public is properly informed before they decide New Zealand’s next government. Garth then rambles and rants a bit about “principles”, “turncoats”, “odiums” and other such 17^th century phenomena, before finishing up with a nice little anecdote from MacBeth.

You’ve certainly earned your super wine biscuit and afternoon nap today, Garth. Good on ya mate!      

 

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National’s Policy Development Process (AKA: Swallowing Dead Fish)

The Truth Really Does Hurt……If You’re National

Having had a couple of days to think things over, John Key has gone on the attack over the “secret” recordings of Bill English and Lockwood Smith telling the truth at National’s annual conference over the weekend. On Breakfast this morning, Key tried to shift the focus from the content of the recordings to the fact they were made in the first place. He first tried to blame Young Labour, saying they tried to “infiltrate” the conference (which wouldn’t be all that hard – just put on a suit and act like an arrogant wanker and even Key himself would think you’d been a supporter for life) . Next he tried to pin it all on Helen Clark and Nicky Hager. Then, showing his desperation to make this whole issue go away, Key suggested the tapes might not be “actually sort of completely real”, afterall there are many Bill English imposters out there.

Of course the real issue here is that National has clearly been lying to the public and continues to do so, and it is somewhat ironic that Key has assured voters that he would be an accountable Prime Minister, yet has failed to take any responsibility for National’s indiscretions. And as if to confirm that National has an outbreak of “the lies” within its caucus, Key stated this afternoon:

“We don’t speak in sound bites, we don’t speak in press releases but effectively if every single word you say is going to be recorded then that’s the way you have to speak.”

Now, John Key knows as well as anyone that sound bites and press releases are all the public has had from National for the past year or so; after all, it is the golden rule of the  Crosby-Textor handbook. Key also indicated National may complain to the police over the recordings, and they are already picking through video surveillance of the conference in an effort to reveal the culprit. This simply begs the question: why was National secretly recording their own delegates? Seems even National doesn’t trust its own.

In a display of hypocrisy, Key also called on Helen Clark to take some responsibility and state publicly whether or not she condones “secret” recordings. That is quite ironic given Key did no such thing when secret recordings of Mike Williams were circulating earlier this year. In fact, his deputy made the following statements at the time:

“Mike Williams has been caught red-handed saying one thing behind closed doors and another thing to the public…Mr Williams can’t be relied on to tell the public the truth, yet Helen Clark is defending him. This is an indictment on her judgment.”

That is the ultimate proof that National is nothing but a bunch of lying hypocrites.

  

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National Plays Follow The (Deputy) Leader

It seems Lockwood Smith has taken a leaf out of Bill English’s book and has decided to use some “loose language” as well. Tonight TV3 released a “secret” recording of Lockwood at National’s conference over the weekend and like English, he too lets the truth slip out. Of particular interest was the following comment he made:

   “If you try to do everything differently you’ll scare the horses and under MMP it’s very hard to win.”

So is it simply a coincidence then that John Key announced one of his 10 priorities should he become Prime Minister is to hold a referendum on MMP?

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Bill English Translated

For a party that paints itself as honest, it certainly is strange that the National hierarchy has forced Bill English to apologise for telling the truth. Anyway, we all know Bill doesn’t say what he means in public, so his apology today needs some translating:

What Bill Said: “Statements of mine secretly recorded at a social function last Friday and published over the weekend have caused confusion and concern about National’s policy on Kiwibank and Working for Families”

What Bill Meant: We scared the voters.

What Bill Said: “I did not choose my words well”

What Bill Meant: I told the truth.

What Bill Said: “We have worked for several years to find a better way of allowing families to keep their own income”

What Bill Meant: We tried to come up with our own policies

What Bill Said: “We opted to retain the existing structure because we were not willing to create uncertainty for families under pressure. If we are elected we will work to improve the system for families without reducing entitlements”

What Bill Meant: But Labour’s were too damn good!

What Bill Said: “With respect to Kiwibank, I shouldn’t have made the comments I made. National has had no discussions about Kiwibank and has no plans to sell it”

What Bill Meant: I departed from Crosby-Textor guidelines. Crosby-Textor says National has had no discussions about Kiwibank and has no plans to sell it.

What Bill Said: “Comments I made regarding the complexity of WFF have been construed as criticism of John Key. That is wrong.”

What Bill Meant: John’s really really smart. Honestly!

What Bill Said: “My repeated responses to this question yesterday reflected my determination not to widen the debate – not an attempt to criticize John Key”

What Bill Meant: I was just trying to stick to Crosby-Textor guidelines. Crosby-Textor say John is really really smart. Honestly!

What Bill Said: “I should have made it clear that I meant no such criticism and I’m making that clear today”

What Bill Meant: John’s worried I’ll pull another 2002. I should just have kept lying.

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National’s Policy On SOEs

Opinion Polls Show Confusing Picture

Two opinion polls released by ONE News and TV3 tonight give a rather confused picture of the public’s political preferences.

The ONE news Colmar Brunton poll has National gaining 4 points, taking them to 54-percent, while Labour remain stable on 35-percent. In the small party stakes, support for the Greens halves to 3.7-percent, with the Maori Party, NZ First and Act sitting on 3.2-percent, 1.5-percent, and 1.1-percent respectively.

In the preferred Prime Minister stakes, both John Key and Helen Clark register a drop in their support, taking them to 35-percent and 29-percent respectively.

In contrast, the TV3 poll presents a completely different picture. In their poll, National drops 3 points, while Labour picks up 3 points, taking them to 48-percent and 38-percent respectively. This 10-point gap is significantly smaller than the 19-point deficit shown in the ONE News poll.

Of the smaller parties, the Greens drop slightly to 5.8-percent, and both NZ First and the Maori Party increase slightly to 3.4-percent and 2.9-percent respectively. ACT and United Future barely register.

In the preferred PM stakes, Clark regains the position as New Zealand’s preferred PM for the first time in a year, picking up 4 points to 32-percent, while Key drops a massive 6 points to 29-percent. However, the poll has more good news for Helen Clark, with 62-percent of those polled thinking she is performing better than she has in two years. Meanwhile, Key registers a drop in those who think he is performing well to 52-percent, and a 4 point increase in those who think he is performing poorly.

The polls certainly do send mixed messages about the public mood at the moment. Although, it would appear the ONE News poll is out of step with other recent polls which have shown a mood shift toward Labour. The ONE News poll also tends to over-represent National Party support, and the TV3 poll was the most reliable leading up to the 2005 general election.    

 

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National’s Support Continues To Crumble

The latest Roy Morgan poll shows support for National continues to erode, in line with other recent polls. The poll, conducted between 24th March – 6^th April, shows support for National dropped by 4-percent, to 47-percent. While National’s drop was quite large, the increase in support for Labour was relatively marginal at only 0.5-percent, to 34.5-percent.

The Greens picked up 2.5-percent in the latest poll, taking them to 9-percent. Of the other small parties, both NZ First and the Maori Party picked up 1-percent, taking them to 4-percent and 3-percent respectively. Act remained unchanged on 1.5-percent, while United Future and the Progressives barely registered, with only 0.5-percent support each.

The poll clearly indicates that National has failed to regain the momentum it lost during March after the numerous gaffs and cock-ups by John Key, and now that it has lost the political agenda altogether they will have to fight to win the public back. It is surprising that Labour didn’t pick up more than 0.5-percent, however the poll doesn’t take into account the FTA with China or the government’s veto of the sale of Auckland Airport to the Canadian Pension Plan. One expects that both of these issues have gone down well with the general public, and this will likely be seen in future polls.

 

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Labour In Good Spirits

Labour Party President Mike Williams has admitted feeling “miserable” about Labour’s position at the start of the year. With opinion polls showing them trailing National and a number of issues dogging the government, anyone could be forgiven for thinking things were turning to custard. However, four months on and Williams says Labour is in very good spirits, and for good reason too. Labour has continued to roll out progressive policies that actually make a difference to New Zealanders and, perhaps more importantly for the looming election, John Key has finally come under the sort of scrutiny that was so lacking when he began his tenure as Leader of the Opposition.

In an article by Audrey Young in the Weekend Herald, Williams states:

“In 1990 we knew we were going to get thrashed. There was all that ‘change the leader, change the policy’ kind of stuff. There is certainly not that sense. I think there is a sense out in the party that we are in with a chance.”  

If the recent criticism of Key’s leadership abilities and the improvement in Labour’s fortunes in recent opinion polls is anything to go by, then it would appear that they are in with more than a “chance”. And all indications are that Labour will be a formidable opponent come November.

Michael Cullen has also stated that 2007 was probably a year Labour would rather forget, and although things may have got off to a bad start, he too says Labour’s is in high spirits at the moment, citing three main reasons for this:

The first is general satisfaction within the caucus and wider party that the Government is sticking to its core principles. “There is a feeling we have been doing good things for New Zealand, which is consistent with our traditions and our philosophy.”

The second is stable leadership. “There is no leadership issue. It is absolutely obvious to anybody that Helen is absolutely secure in her position. That issue is not even discussed in the Labour caucus. It is not a matter for any speculation.”

Reason No. 3 is that the party has regained policy momentum. “After some problems last year, I think we feel that we are re-establishing slowly that image of competence, of getting on with the business of Government and, indeed, to a significant extent we’ve captured the policy agenda so far this year – we have been leading on policy, which is a happier place to be in than feeling as though you are being entirely reactive.”

Labour certainly has been leading on the policy front, in contrast to National which has yet to reveal any substantial policy to the electorate, and will no doubt continue to do this leading up to this year’s election. If there is one thing that Labour needs to win the election, it is a strong morale within their ranks and a belief in the policies they have been rolling out. And they have this by the bucket load.

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Key Feeling The Heat

John Armstrong has a good piece in the Weekend Herald on the recent quietness that has decended over National in the past week. With the party grabbing few, if any, headlines  and Key not asking a single question in the House, Armstrong concludes that National has gone into a state of “suspended animation”.

Of course, this has only increased Labour’s drive to put pressure on Key, and it appears to be paying off, with Key chosing to release National’s $50 victim compensation scheme in Auckland rather than Wellington. On this, Armstrong says:

“Labour was not alone in seeing the decision to release the policy in Auckland as a sign of Key’s gun shyness in the face of the Wellington political media following his widely publicised slip-up over National’s Treaty policy and the fuzziness which surrounded National’s stance on the sale of shares in Auckland Airport to foreign interests.”

It certainly seems as though the pressure finally being applied by the media has taken Key by surprise, and his strategy now is to avoid them altogether. Of course, National has been under the somewhat arrogant illusion that they could simply coast along during the election and gain the Treasury benches without letting the public know what eaxctly it intended to do once there. However, recent weeks have delivered a wake-up call to the party, and they appear to have lost the political agenda altogether. As Armstrong says:

“The Labour fightback has seen National lose control of the political agenda which it was setting at the start of the year.

Labour is largely dictating things, partly by using the advantage of Government incumbency and partly through a steady stream of fresh, politically seductive policy initiatives, many of which have the secondary purpose of trying to force Key to say whether they would survive under a National-led Government.”

And since National has moved toward the left and flip-flopped on a number of Labour initiatives, Labour’s strategy has been to continue releasing attractive policies that National can’t commit to and thus make it increasingly difficult for Key to keep National centrist. On this Armstrong states:

“Labour, meanwhile, is playing an extremely clever game. Key may have moved National to the centre to take votes off Labour. Labour is now trying to crowd him out by putting up centrist policies and challenging him to back them.

If he does, National’s brand distinction fades and its flexibility to spend money is further constrained. If he doesn’t, he is painted as extreme and out of touch with middle NZ.

Likewise, Cullen’s admission his tax cuts will be smaller than National’s may have been a similar ploy.

If Cullen can make his cuts as large as possible, that puts the onus on National to deliver even bigger ones.

If National doesn’t do so, it again loses vital brand distinction.

If National is a lot more generous, it becomes easier for Cullen to brand his opponents as fiscally irresponsible.”

This is a very clever strategy indeed, and one suspects that in the coming weeks and months things will certainly become a lot more difficult for Key than they have been in the past. Far from coasting along to victory, National will be forced to prove to New Zealand what it is they have to offer and actually work to win the public’s vote. It appears this has come as quite a shock to many within the party’s “inner circle”.

Speaking Of “Media Beatups”….

Kiwiblog certainly seems to have got itself all worked up over an item that featured on One News last night, labeling it a “puerile and almost offensive” media “beat-up”. The item focused on apparent denials of climate change made by Maurice Williamson and Lockwood Smith to public audiences in recent times, which appear to put the two offside with National Party policy as well as John Key. Judging by his strong language, this is an issue which Kiwiblog obviously holds dear, but although he attempts to enlighten us on the political realities of decision making, he conveniently overlooks the somewhat unsubtIe distinction between “private” opinion and public statement.

It is obvious that there will never be an absolute consensus on an issue within a large group, and political parties are certainly no exception to this. The nature of political decision making often requires compromise, concessions, and the sacrifice of personal opinion and beliefs in order to promote the wider collective interests of the party. Indeed, it is often the case that MPs simply tow the party line and put their own views aside, and I doubt this fact is lost on the New Zealand public. Thus, given the range of opinions within a political party, it would be most unhelpful if the media were to go around each MP seeking their “personal” opinion once a party had decided, collectively, to take a particular course of action, as Kiwiblog correctly points out.

However, things change when opinions, which are privately held and have supposedly been set aside in the interests of the party, are expressed publicly by an MP acting in the capacity of a party spokesperson, especially if those statements seem to contradict their party’s policies. In such a situation, there is likely to be both confusion and apprehension within the electorate as to how such opinions will ultimately influence a party’s policies, and it is thus right for the media to seek clarification on behalf of the public. Such clarification is particularly important in an election year when the public is entitled to know how genuine a party is being when they release policy on a particular issue.

It is certainly curious when an MP claims they are committed to party policy, while at the same time dismissing the very foundations on which that policy has been formed. In the case of Williamson, his remarks were allegedly made during a presentation to an Automobile Association meeting. These statements were not made by Maurice Williamson the private citizen, but rather Maurice Williamson the National Party spokesperson for transport, and as such they are open to scrutiny by both the media and the public. To suggest otherwise, as Kiwiblog appears to, is nothing short of idiocy, and it is surprising that Kiwiblog’s rather enthusiastic advocacy of freedom of speech does not quite extend to freedom of the press. Or at least not when the National Party is shown in a negative light. 

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The Legacy, Thus Far, Of Helen Clark’s Labour

Since assuming the National Party leadership in 2006, John Key has had somewhat of a dream run with the media and, consequently, the New Zealand public. At the same time, however, scrutiny of Helen Clark and her government has been very intense, and it would appear that the “pack mentality” of the Press Gallery is decidedly in favour of a National Party victory. Indeed, not all media outlets have been so subtle in their desires for such a result. Throughout all of this though, Helen Clark’s approach has been to continue rolling out policy and to simply get on with governing. Such pragmatism has been a hallmark of her leadership.

Now into her 8^th year as Prime Minister, Helen Clark’s achievements are as numerous as they are impressive. Her involvement in New Zealand politics spans more than 30 years, since joining the Labour Party in 1971. During that time she has been both Chair and a member of numerous Cabinet and Select Committees; Minister of various portfolios; Opposition Leader; and of course New Zealand’s ninth longest serving and first elected female Prime Minister. But Clark’s achievements are not confined to New Zealand’s boarders. Indeed, they span the international political stage. In 1986 she was awarded the annual Peace Prize of the Danish Peace Foundation for her work promoting disarmament, and this year received a special award from the United Nations for her work on Climate Change. New Zealand’s 37^th Prime Minister will certainly go down in history as one of our best.

Clark, this year, became the longest serving Labour leader, and is also the longest serving female MP currently in Parliament, earning her the unofficial title of “Mother of the house”.  She is one of the most experienced New Zealand politicians, and her leadership is second to none. Her grasp of MMP politics and her ability to form progressive and lasting coalitions will certainly be one of the many things she will be remembered for.

In a 2006 feature in the Dominion Post celebrating Helen Clarks 7^th year as Prime Minister, Clark said of herself:

“I would like to think that, many years down the track, people would say that I gave it everything I had, that I was very dedicated to the job, that I was pretty accessible and approachable, and got out and about, which I do.”

There is no doubt that Helen Clark will be remembered for exactly that, and much more. New Zealand would certainly be wise to hold on to such an experienced leader. Later this year the public will have the opportunity to give their assessment of Helen Clark’s leadership, and this long weekend provides an excellent time for us all to think about some of the many great things Helen Clark’s Labour has delivered for all New Zealanders. They include, but are certainly not limited to:

• Seeing off 3 opposition leaders (with Key gone by the end of the year)
• The entrenchment of New Zealand’s nuclear free policy
• Working for Families
• Kiwisaver
• Interest-free student loans
• 14 weeks paid parental leave
• Restoration of income-related rents for state houses
• Keeping New Zealand out of the war in Iraq
• Fostering the closest relations with the united States since ANZUS
• Establishment of Kiwi Bank
• Iminent free trade deal with China – the first western country to do so
• Ratification of Kyoto
• 4 weeks annual leave
• More affordable primary healthcare, including cheaper doctors visits and prescriptions
• Biggest upgrade of New Zealand’s public health services ever undertaken
• Making it compulsory for electricity retailers to offer a tariff with a daily charge of 30 cents per day, so that those who use modest amounts of power don’t have to pay a fortune just to keep electricity connected.
• Civil Unions
• Maori Television
• Nationwide FM Pacific Radio Network.
• The Employment Relations Act and the restoration of some degree of equality in employment bargaining
• Economic growth amongst the highest in the world
• The World Bank’s Doing Business in 2005 report showed that New Zealand is the easiest country in the world in which to do business
• $1.42 billion business tax relief package for small business
• The modern apprenticeships programme, which has turned out more than 8,000 modern apprentices
• Establishment of NZ Trade and Enterprise
• Restoration of the married rate of superannuation to not less than 65 per cent of the average net ordinary time weekly wage
• Establishment of the “Cullen” superannuation fund
• Establishment of the $700m NZ Fast Forward research fund
• Increasing Research, Science and Technology funding by 65% percent
• Investing heavily in New Zealand art, culture and heritage
• Funding strong growth in the basic sciences through the Marsden Fund and the New Economy Research Fund
• Establishing the $100m New Zealand Venture Investment Fund
• Increasing the minimum wage every year, due to reach $12/hr in April
• Committed $22.3 billion to address key land transport priorities
• Purchasing back the nation’s rail track and investing over $200 million in maintenance and new capital projects
• Free meningitis vaccinations for all New Zealand children
• Starting work on major Auckland transport projects
• Developing New Zealand’s first ever Rail Strategy, and Walking and Cycling strategy
• Reinstating ACC workplace cover to a full social insurance scheme
• Increasing surgical funding for key operations, such as hip and cateract
• Rebuilding the school dental service
• The implementation of major programmes, such as HEHA, targeting obesity and related diseases
• NCEA
• Increasing investment in conservation and environment policy
• Completing free trade negotiations with Singapore, Thailand, Chile and Brunei and is in the process of negotiating others
• Increasing New Zealand’s international presence, with new embassies in Brasilia, Warsaw, and Cairo
• Committing almost $5b in extra funding for New Zealand’s Defence Force, and radically upgrading equipment, including new Navy frigates and helicopters
• Settling eight major Treaty claims, with at least another 26 in progress
• Delivering rates rebates for older New Zealanders
• Saving Air New Zealand from collapse
• Committing to keeping New Zealand assets in New Zealand hands
• Increasing funding for sport and recreation by almost 20 times its 1999 level
• FORCING NATIONAL TO MOVE TO THE LEFT

 

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