Opinion Polls Show Confusing Picture
Two opinion polls released by ONE News and TV3 tonight give a rather confused picture of the public’s political preferences.
The ONE news Colmar Brunton poll has National gaining 4 points, taking them to 54-percent, while Labour remain stable on 35-percent. In the small party stakes, support for the Greens halves to 3.7-percent, with the Maori Party, NZ First and Act sitting on 3.2-percent, 1.5-percent, and 1.1-percent respectively.
In the preferred Prime Minister stakes, both John Key and Helen Clark register a drop in their support, taking them to 35-percent and 29-percent respectively.
In contrast, the TV3 poll presents a completely different picture. In their poll, National drops 3 points, while Labour picks up 3 points, taking them to 48-percent and 38-percent respectively. This 10-point gap is significantly smaller than the 19-point deficit shown in the ONE News poll.
Of the smaller parties, the Greens drop slightly to 5.8-percent, and both NZ First and the Maori Party increase slightly to 3.4-percent and 2.9-percent respectively. ACT and United Future barely register.
In the preferred PM stakes, Clark regains the position as New Zealand’s preferred PM for the first time in a year, picking up 4 points to 32-percent, while Key drops a massive 6 points to 29-percent. However, the poll has more good news for Helen Clark, with 62-percent of those polled thinking she is performing better than she has in two years. Meanwhile, Key registers a drop in those who think he is performing well to 52-percent, and a 4 point increase in those who think he is performing poorly.
The polls certainly do send mixed messages about the public mood at the moment. Although, it would appear the ONE News poll is out of step with other recent polls which have shown a mood shift toward Labour. The ONE News poll also tends to over-represent National Party support, and the TV3 poll was the most reliable leading up to the 2005 general election.
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National’s Support Continues To Crumble
The latest Roy Morgan poll shows support for National continues to erode, in line with other recent polls. The poll, conducted between 24th March – 6th April, shows support for National dropped by 4-percent, to 47-percent. While National’s drop was quite large, the increase in support for Labour was relatively marginal at only 0.5-percent, to 34.5-percent.
The Greens picked up 2.5-percent in the latest poll, taking them to 9-percent. Of the other small parties, both NZ First and the Maori Party picked up 1-percent, taking them to 4-percent and 3-percent respectively. Act remained unchanged on 1.5-percent, while United Future and the Progressives barely registered, with only 0.5-percent support each.
The poll clearly indicates that National has failed to regain the momentum it lost during March after the numerous gaffs and cock-ups by John Key, and now that it has lost the political agenda altogether they will have to fight to win the public back. It is surprising that Labour didn’t pick up more than 0.5-percent, however the poll doesn’t take into account the FTA with China or the government’s veto of the sale of Auckland Airport to the Canadian Pension Plan. One expects that both of these issues have gone down well with the general public, and this will likely be seen in future polls.
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Roger’s Return
If last week’s announcement by Act that Roger Douglas was planning a return to Parliament sent shock waves around the country, then today’s revelations about what he plans to do once he’s there must surely be like history repeating itself. It seems that Douglas didn’t quite get his fill of the far right agenda he pursued while Finance Minister for the fourth Labour government, and today outlined some of the policies he would like to pursue should he ever make it back to cabinet. They included:
- Privatizing the health system
- Scrapping Working for Families
- Cut between $3-$5b of government spending
- Drop the top tax rate to 33c in the dollar
- Introduce education vouchers for children
One can only assume that those policies announced today are just the tip of a very large and ugly iceberg. We can also expect privatization of education and state owned assets, welfare cuts, and a general return to the “Rogernomic” and “Ruthenasia” policies of the past. Of course, the prospect of Act being in any position to implement these policies in their own right is very slim indeed, but the likelihood of them gaining enough of the party vote in this year’s general election to make them a real contender for a spot in a right-wing coalition has increased exponentially since National began its move to the left. John Key has certainly been slow in quashing any speculation that Act, Let alone Douglas, would have any prospect of a position in a government he leads.
National’s dallying over the issue of Douglas will certainly not have alleviated suspicions of a hidden right wing agenda, nor quelled public fears of the type of Prime Minister Key would be. In fact, it is not hard at all to imagine a National government pursuing some, if not all, of the policies outlined by Act today, especially given the large number of current members of National’s caucus who were great admirers of “Rogernomics”, and were happy to continue his legacy under Ruth Richardson during the 1990s. And while John Key has taken a somewhat silent approach to this, Rodney Hide has been very vocal indeed, today saying:
“There are a lot of people in the National Party who agree with what we are saying.”
That is certainly an indication that John Key will have a job on his hands in trying to ensure that National remains a more centrist party than it has been in the past, especially once coalition negotiations start. While today Key is saying there is no possibility whatsoever that National would pursue a far-right agenda should it gain the Treasury benches, the cards dealt after the election and the strength of his desires to become New Zealand’s 38th Prime Minister could certainly change all of that.
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National Pays For Key’s Blunders
The latest TVNZ/Colamr Brunton poll has National taking somewhat of a hit following the rather bad fortnight the party has had. National is down 3 points to 50-percent, while Labour is up one to 35-percent. Both the Greens and NZ First have also picked up a point, taking them to 7 and 2.5-percent each. The Maori Party is sitting on a reasonable 2.5-percent, with all other parties failing to register over 1-percent. The latest poll follows the recent Roy Morgan poll, which also showed growing support for Labour.
In the past fortnight John Key has demonstrated that, without close management, he is a liability for National. This has certainly been picked up in the polls. Helen Clark and Labour now need to keep the pressure on Key to force more of these errors, and to show the public what the real John Key is actually like.
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