The Truth Really Does Hurt……If You’re National

Having had a couple of days to think things over, John Key has gone on the attack over the “secret” recordings of Bill English and Lockwood Smith telling the truth at National’s annual conference over the weekend. On Breakfast this morning, Key tried to shift the focus from the content of the recordings to the fact they were made in the first place. He first tried to blame Young Labour, saying they tried to “infiltrate” the conference (which wouldn’t be all that hard – just put on a suit and act like an arrogant wanker and even Key himself would think you’d been a supporter for life) . Next he tried to pin it all on Helen Clark and Nicky Hager. Then, showing his desperation to make this whole issue go away, Key suggested the tapes might not be “actually sort of completely real”, afterall there are many Bill English imposters out there.

Of course the real issue here is that National has clearly been lying to the public and continues to do so, and it is somewhat ironic that Key has assured voters that he would be an accountable Prime Minister, yet has failed to take any responsibility for National’s indiscretions. And as if to confirm that National has an outbreak of “the lies” within its caucus, Key stated this afternoon:

“We don’t speak in sound bites, we don’t speak in press releases but effectively if every single word you say is going to be recorded then that’s the way you have to speak.”

Now, John Key knows as well as anyone that sound bites and press releases are all the public has had from National for the past year or so; after all, it is the golden rule of the  Crosby-Textor handbook. Key also indicated National may complain to the police over the recordings, and they are already picking through video surveillance of the conference in an effort to reveal the culprit. This simply begs the question: why was National secretly recording their own delegates? Seems even National doesn’t trust its own.

In a display of hypocrisy, Key also called on Helen Clark to take some responsibility and state publicly whether or not she condones “secret” recordings. That is quite ironic given Key did no such thing when secret recordings of Mike Williams were circulating earlier this year. In fact, his deputy made the following statements at the time:

“Mike Williams has been caught red-handed saying one thing behind closed doors and another thing to the public…Mr Williams can’t be relied on to tell the public the truth, yet Helen Clark is defending him. This is an indictment on her judgment.”

That is the ultimate proof that National is nothing but a bunch of lying hypocrites.

  

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Opinion Polls Show Confusing Picture

Two opinion polls released by ONE News and TV3 tonight give a rather confused picture of the public’s political preferences.

The ONE news Colmar Brunton poll has National gaining 4 points, taking them to 54-percent, while Labour remain stable on 35-percent. In the small party stakes, support for the Greens halves to 3.7-percent, with the Maori Party, NZ First and Act sitting on 3.2-percent, 1.5-percent, and 1.1-percent respectively.

In the preferred Prime Minister stakes, both John Key and Helen Clark register a drop in their support, taking them to 35-percent and 29-percent respectively.

In contrast, the TV3 poll presents a completely different picture. In their poll, National drops 3 points, while Labour picks up 3 points, taking them to 48-percent and 38-percent respectively. This 10-point gap is significantly smaller than the 19-point deficit shown in the ONE News poll.

Of the smaller parties, the Greens drop slightly to 5.8-percent, and both NZ First and the Maori Party increase slightly to 3.4-percent and 2.9-percent respectively. ACT and United Future barely register.

In the preferred PM stakes, Clark regains the position as New Zealand’s preferred PM for the first time in a year, picking up 4 points to 32-percent, while Key drops a massive 6 points to 29-percent. However, the poll has more good news for Helen Clark, with 62-percent of those polled thinking she is performing better than she has in two years. Meanwhile, Key registers a drop in those who think he is performing well to 52-percent, and a 4 point increase in those who think he is performing poorly.

The polls certainly do send mixed messages about the public mood at the moment. Although, it would appear the ONE News poll is out of step with other recent polls which have shown a mood shift toward Labour. The ONE News poll also tends to over-represent National Party support, and the TV3 poll was the most reliable leading up to the 2005 general election.    

 

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Labour In Good Spirits

Labour Party President Mike Williams has admitted feeling “miserable” about Labour’s position at the start of the year. With opinion polls showing them trailing National and a number of issues dogging the government, anyone could be forgiven for thinking things were turning to custard. However, four months on and Williams says Labour is in very good spirits, and for good reason too. Labour has continued to roll out progressive policies that actually make a difference to New Zealanders and, perhaps more importantly for the looming election, John Key has finally come under the sort of scrutiny that was so lacking when he began his tenure as Leader of the Opposition.

In an article by Audrey Young in the Weekend Herald, Williams states:

“In 1990 we knew we were going to get thrashed. There was all that ‘change the leader, change the policy’ kind of stuff. There is certainly not that sense. I think there is a sense out in the party that we are in with a chance.”  

If the recent criticism of Key’s leadership abilities and the improvement in Labour’s fortunes in recent opinion polls is anything to go by, then it would appear that they are in with more than a “chance”. And all indications are that Labour will be a formidable opponent come November.

Michael Cullen has also stated that 2007 was probably a year Labour would rather forget, and although things may have got off to a bad start, he too says Labour’s is in high spirits at the moment, citing three main reasons for this:

The first is general satisfaction within the caucus and wider party that the Government is sticking to its core principles. “There is a feeling we have been doing good things for New Zealand, which is consistent with our traditions and our philosophy.”

The second is stable leadership. “There is no leadership issue. It is absolutely obvious to anybody that Helen is absolutely secure in her position. That issue is not even discussed in the Labour caucus. It is not a matter for any speculation.”

Reason No. 3 is that the party has regained policy momentum. “After some problems last year, I think we feel that we are re-establishing slowly that image of competence, of getting on with the business of Government and, indeed, to a significant extent we’ve captured the policy agenda so far this year – we have been leading on policy, which is a happier place to be in than feeling as though you are being entirely reactive.”

Labour certainly has been leading on the policy front, in contrast to National which has yet to reveal any substantial policy to the electorate, and will no doubt continue to do this leading up to this year’s election. If there is one thing that Labour needs to win the election, it is a strong morale within their ranks and a belief in the policies they have been rolling out. And they have this by the bucket load.

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Jon Johansson On Key

Victoria University political scientist, Jon Johansson, makes a number of good observations in and article on leadership in this week’s Listener. Johansson specialises in studying leadership, and of John Key he says:

“He has blurted for as long as he has been leader. He has said disparate things to different audiences – not smart. He is learning that you get found out.”

Certainly, this has been made no more apparent than in the past month where Key has been caught out on a number of issues, and his incompetency’s and inexperience exposed. Johansson points out, and quite rightly, that Key has only come under pressure in recent times, and I suspect this new found scrutiny has been reflected in the recent Herald-DigiPoll.  Media, and definitely public, scrutiny up until now has been almost non-existent, and has allowed Key to simply coast along without having to present anything substantial to the electorate. On this, Johansson warns:

“Voters, the media and MPs themselves are too credulous with new leaders, too accepting of what they say”

This fact has certainly been essential to National’s current fortunes in the polls, but may prove fatal in the long run. Key appears to have been lead into a false sense of security that the so-called “mood for change” will be enough to sweep Helen Clark and Labour out of the Beehive. However, if March is anything to go by, the recent mood change within the media, and the public at large, is for Key to demonstrate, without rhetoric, smart clichés, or unsubstantial one-liners, how exactly a National government would improve the lives of New Zealanders. 

 

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Labour Gaining Ground

The latest Herald-DigiPoll shows resurgence in support for Labour, at the expense of National. Support for National has dropped 4.6 points to 49.9-percent, while Labour has picked up 2.8 points to 39.3-percent. Of course most, if not all, of National’s drop in support can be attributed to John Key’s poor performance this month, and The Herald states March as being:

“…a month memorable for slip-ups and lackluster performances by leader John Key.”

On the other hand, Labour’s approach under the pragmatic leadership of Helen Clark has simply been to get on with governing, and the progressive release of policy seems to have paid off. As The Herald says, March has involved:

“…carefully designed publicity hits for the Government, including a snap move to try to keep strategic assets such as Auckland Airport in New Zealand control.”

Certainly, Helen Clark has always maintained that the gap between Labour and National will close once either party begins releasing policy, and one expects that gap to continue closing over the next few months.

In the preferred PM stakes things are much tighter, with Key on 45.9-percent and Clark on 45.6-percent. It is quite interesting that, while National seem to have a clear edge over Labour at the moment, the public aren’t at all sure about the leadership of John Key. I suspect this is what is going to hurt National come the election.

In the minor parties, The Greens dropped half a point to 3.9-percent; NZ First is down 1 point to 1.1-percent; The Maori Party picks up 2.2 points, taking them to 3.7-percent; Act gains 0.7 points to 1.1-percent; and United Future doesn’t register.

Labour will certainly take some solace from this latest poll, and will give them momentum to keep the heat on Key, and force him to have more months like March.   

  

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First Leader’s Debate

TVNZ launches the new channel 7 on Freeview this coming Monday, and from 12pm-2pm Guyon Espiner will host the first leader’s debate for this year’s election. The ‘Kingmaker Debate” will only feature the leaders of the minor parties, so no Helen Clark or John Key, but it will definitely be interesting to see how the smaller parties are positioning themselves for post-election negotiations. I suspect they will have some strong words for both Labour and National. For those not lucky enough to have Freeview, TVNZ will have a live internet feed here, or you can wait for the highlights on TV One at midnight.

National: Writing Policy On The Hoof Since Ages Ago

The Legacy, Thus Far, Of Helen Clark’s Labour

Since assuming the National Party leadership in 2006, John Key has had somewhat of a dream run with the media and, consequently, the New Zealand public. At the same time, however, scrutiny of Helen Clark and her government has been very intense, and it would appear that the “pack mentality” of the Press Gallery is decidedly in favour of a National Party victory. Indeed, not all media outlets have been so subtle in their desires for such a result. Throughout all of this though, Helen Clark’s approach has been to continue rolling out policy and to simply get on with governing. Such pragmatism has been a hallmark of her leadership.

Now into her 8^th year as Prime Minister, Helen Clark’s achievements are as numerous as they are impressive. Her involvement in New Zealand politics spans more than 30 years, since joining the Labour Party in 1971. During that time she has been both Chair and a member of numerous Cabinet and Select Committees; Minister of various portfolios; Opposition Leader; and of course New Zealand’s ninth longest serving and first elected female Prime Minister. But Clark’s achievements are not confined to New Zealand’s boarders. Indeed, they span the international political stage. In 1986 she was awarded the annual Peace Prize of the Danish Peace Foundation for her work promoting disarmament, and this year received a special award from the United Nations for her work on Climate Change. New Zealand’s 37^th Prime Minister will certainly go down in history as one of our best.

Clark, this year, became the longest serving Labour leader, and is also the longest serving female MP currently in Parliament, earning her the unofficial title of “Mother of the house”.  She is one of the most experienced New Zealand politicians, and her leadership is second to none. Her grasp of MMP politics and her ability to form progressive and lasting coalitions will certainly be one of the many things she will be remembered for.

In a 2006 feature in the Dominion Post celebrating Helen Clarks 7^th year as Prime Minister, Clark said of herself:

“I would like to think that, many years down the track, people would say that I gave it everything I had, that I was very dedicated to the job, that I was pretty accessible and approachable, and got out and about, which I do.”

There is no doubt that Helen Clark will be remembered for exactly that, and much more. New Zealand would certainly be wise to hold on to such an experienced leader. Later this year the public will have the opportunity to give their assessment of Helen Clark’s leadership, and this long weekend provides an excellent time for us all to think about some of the many great things Helen Clark’s Labour has delivered for all New Zealanders. They include, but are certainly not limited to:

• Seeing off 3 opposition leaders (with Key gone by the end of the year)
• The entrenchment of New Zealand’s nuclear free policy
• Working for Families
• Kiwisaver
• Interest-free student loans
• 14 weeks paid parental leave
• Restoration of income-related rents for state houses
• Keeping New Zealand out of the war in Iraq
• Fostering the closest relations with the united States since ANZUS
• Establishment of Kiwi Bank
• Iminent free trade deal with China – the first western country to do so
• Ratification of Kyoto
• 4 weeks annual leave
• More affordable primary healthcare, including cheaper doctors visits and prescriptions
• Biggest upgrade of New Zealand’s public health services ever undertaken
• Making it compulsory for electricity retailers to offer a tariff with a daily charge of 30 cents per day, so that those who use modest amounts of power don’t have to pay a fortune just to keep electricity connected.
• Civil Unions
• Maori Television
• Nationwide FM Pacific Radio Network.
• The Employment Relations Act and the restoration of some degree of equality in employment bargaining
• Economic growth amongst the highest in the world
• The World Bank’s Doing Business in 2005 report showed that New Zealand is the easiest country in the world in which to do business
• $1.42 billion business tax relief package for small business
• The modern apprenticeships programme, which has turned out more than 8,000 modern apprentices
• Establishment of NZ Trade and Enterprise
• Restoration of the married rate of superannuation to not less than 65 per cent of the average net ordinary time weekly wage
• Establishment of the “Cullen” superannuation fund
• Establishment of the $700m NZ Fast Forward research fund
• Increasing Research, Science and Technology funding by 65% percent
• Investing heavily in New Zealand art, culture and heritage
• Funding strong growth in the basic sciences through the Marsden Fund and the New Economy Research Fund
• Establishing the $100m New Zealand Venture Investment Fund
• Increasing the minimum wage every year, due to reach $12/hr in April
• Committed $22.3 billion to address key land transport priorities
• Purchasing back the nation’s rail track and investing over $200 million in maintenance and new capital projects
• Free meningitis vaccinations for all New Zealand children
• Starting work on major Auckland transport projects
• Developing New Zealand’s first ever Rail Strategy, and Walking and Cycling strategy
• Reinstating ACC workplace cover to a full social insurance scheme
• Increasing surgical funding for key operations, such as hip and cateract
• Rebuilding the school dental service
• The implementation of major programmes, such as HEHA, targeting obesity and related diseases
• NCEA
• Increasing investment in conservation and environment policy
• Completing free trade negotiations with Singapore, Thailand, Chile and Brunei and is in the process of negotiating others
• Increasing New Zealand’s international presence, with new embassies in Brasilia, Warsaw, and Cairo
• Committing almost $5b in extra funding for New Zealand’s Defence Force, and radically upgrading equipment, including new Navy frigates and helicopters
• Settling eight major Treaty claims, with at least another 26 in progress
• Delivering rates rebates for older New Zealanders
• Saving Air New Zealand from collapse
• Committing to keeping New Zealand assets in New Zealand hands
• Increasing funding for sport and recreation by almost 20 times its 1999 level
• FORCING NATIONAL TO MOVE TO THE LEFT

 

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National Pays For Key’s Blunders

The latest TVNZ/Colamr Brunton poll has National taking somewhat of a hit following the rather bad fortnight the party has had. National is down 3 points to 50-percent, while Labour is up one to 35-percent. Both the Greens and NZ First have also picked up a point, taking them to 7 and 2.5-percent each. The Maori Party is sitting on a reasonable 2.5-percent, with all other parties failing to register over 1-percent.  The latest poll follows the recent Roy Morgan poll, which also showed growing support for Labour.

 

In the past fortnight John Key has demonstrated that, without close management, he is a liability for National. This has certainly been picked up in the polls. Helen Clark and Labour now need to keep the pressure on Key to force more of these errors, and to show the public what the real John Key is actually like.

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Key Out Of Touch With Own Supporters

National’s continued opposition to the government’s “NZ Fast Forward” research fund is mind boggling given the widespread support from traditional National Party supporters, and one can’t help but get the feeling Key is cutting off his nose to spite his face. The fund itself was not simply an idea drummed up by Helen Clark and Labour, but has been developed in collaboration with industry and has received widespread support from industry players, including Business New Zealand, PGG Wrightson, Fonterra, and the Meat Industry Association.

National, and certainly John Key, seem obsessed in trying to show Labour is simply embarking on some kind of cynical PR exercise, and instead of pushing their usual line of “we’ll keep it, but with changes”, Key has stated that National will scrap it altogether, effectively placing him off-side with not only New Zealand’s research community, but even his own supporters.

Key seems to demonstrate more and more every day that he is a politician travelling the political superhighway without a roadmap. This will certainly start to take its toll as the election draws near.

 

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John Key Opposes New Zealand “Fast Forwarding”

Helen Clark has announced a much needed increase in science, development and innovation funding, with the establishment of the $700m “NZ Fast Forward” fund. As was expected, National has totally opposed this initiative, with John Key giving the vague reason that they:

“support funding models that encourage partnership between government and industry but we are not convinced that the fund, as described, is the best model for achieving this collaboration.” 

As could also be expected, National did not elaborate on what exactly was wrong with Labour’s funding model, nor did Key offer National’s alternative. He did say, however, that:

“National will be rolling out a comprehensive research and development policy closer to the election.” 

Of course, what this actually means is that National doesn’t have a policy for moving New Zealand forward, but, having had the advantage of seeing Labour’s, will develop one in the coming months.

John Key: From Manager To Managed

This week should have been one to remember for the National Party. With opinion polls released by The Herald and TV3 showing a growing divide between National and Labour, and National with enough support to govern alone, it should really have been their week. However, after extraordinary blunders by John Key, it is probably a week they’d sooner forget.

On Tuesday, the government’s move to block the sale of Auckland Airport to a Canadian pension fund left National in a rather tricky position. Balancing the particularly sensitive policy area of asset sales and core party beliefs of no government interference in private commercial relationships with the wider public interests of keeping New Zealand assets in New Zealand hands proved somewhat of a conundrum for Key. Indeed, that was written all over his face as he spoke to the media scrum following the government’s announcement. Unable to provide a definitive answer as to what National would have done, indicated that Key was ill prepared for a debate on asset sales.

Then on Wednesday came Key’s claim that National had no policy or deadline to settle historical Treaty claims. This was despite a clear (and core) 2005 election policy of settling all Treaty claims by 2010, and Key’s own announcement in 2007 that that deadline had been extended to 2014. Key was forced to release a press statement some time later, effectively admitting he did not understand his own party’s policy on Treaty settlements.

It is certainly extraordinary that in an election year the Leader of the Opposition can make two, seemingly amateur, blunders in the space of less than 24 hours. At a time when political stakes are high, one would expect Key to not only have a firm grasp on National Party policies, but be prepared to state National’s position on an issue, especially when it is one that National has had difficulty with in the past. But that is just it; Key isn’t prepared. Whilst Key the money trader excelled in his chosen field and was hailed and rewarded for his managerial skills, Key the politician, like his predecessor Brash, is a personality to be managed. And, in an attempt to mitigate his lack of political experience, Key has been over-managed to the point where he cannot think on his feet. It is no surprise that one of Key’s worst weeks coincided with his chief press officer taking leave. 

One only has to look at the way the National Party has tried to sell Key to the public to get a sense of how Key has been managed. The release of the John Key DVD is one such example. The music, the editing, the candid conversation, and the almost presidential style in which Key was presented all served to put a glossy sheen on what has been shown in the last few days to be an inept political Leader. His “State of the Nation” address earlier this year is another example. Whilst Clark chose to deliver her speech at a business breakfast, Key’s was given to a group of paying National Party supporters, definitely a more comfortable and receiving audience. The clapping supporters and the standing ovation as Key entered not only served to present a positive image of Key to those watching the news, but to give Key a more relaxed environment free from the pressure that his words might not be well received.

If opinion polls are to be believed, then Key’s manufactured image has gone down well with the public, but, as has been shown over this past week, there are of course inherent dangers in shielding an inexperienced politician from politics. Whilst Key is used to delivering National Party policy to National Party audiences, that will not always be possible as the election draws near. Key will be increasingly faced with issues like those seen this week, especially as National starts to release policy, and New Zealanders will finally get a true picture of what John Key the Prime Minister would actually be like.   

 

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Essentially John Key

I came across a rather interesting comment made by John Key in this month’s Metro magazine. In an article by Simon Wilson comparing the supposedly “different” Aucklands that Key and Clark live in, the following arises:

“A little later he tells me people think it’s time for a change. Is that the reason he stands such a good chance of winning? “Essentially”. And a little later again, he adds: “Oil and food prices”.

It’s very telling that Key’s answer was not that National has better policies than Labour. Nor was it that he could do a better job as Prime Minister than Helen Clark. Instead, Key attributes his chances of victory in this year’s election to a so-called “mood change” within the electorate, something which has become somewhat of a theme in his explanations of National’s current fortunes. When combined with the number of Labour policies National has adopted, including Working for Families, Kiwisaver, paid parental leave, interest free student loans, four weeks annual leave, nuclear free and climate change, one has to ask whether the public is responding to style or substance. I believe the answer to that question is definitely the former.

It is certainly worrying and does not bode well for New Zealand when a political party can garner more than 50-percent support in opinion polls whilst not revealing any substantial policy to the public and possessing a leader who is still very much an enigma to the electorate. What is perhaps more worrying is when such a leader openly admits his chances of electoral victory are precisely because he has no policy.

Fran O’Sullivan suggests in The Herald that Key’s closest ally at the moment is Helen Clark, but I beg to differ. The greatest asset that John Key has at present is a public largely ignorant of what it is that National actually stands for.

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Where Is New Zealand’s Quality Journalism?

Recent comments by Helen Clark and Peter Davis regarding The Herald have served to highlight some interesting and pressing issues concerning the role of the media and the quality of journalism in New Zealand. The comments have probably done Labour more harm than good, but I think they are both valid and timely. For a number of years now the quality of reporting in New Zealand has been on a downward slope. Not only is it now rare to come across a good piece of well researched investigative journalism about hard issues,  the journalistic qualities of balance and fairness also seem to have disappeared. The Herald’s coverage of the Electoral Finance Bill, regardless of one’s political persuasion, was a prime example of all that is wrong with New Zealand’s media.  

No one could deny the media has an absolutely essential role to play in society. Perhaps this is made no more clearer than in the American Constitution which protects freedom of the Press in the First Amendment. In a democratic society the media is the citizens’ watchdog, charged with placing checks and balances on government and those with power. A secondary role of the media is to provide information to the public to help create an informed citizenry. In this regard, The Herald is right to scrutinize the Prime Minister and members of Cabinet, the actions of government departments and alike. If The Herald did not do this then it would not be fulfilling its role as the Fourth Estate. However, in an election year the political landscape is markedly different, and accordingly the focus of any media outlet, particularly those reporting the news, should be widened. Not only should the government be under intense scrutiny, but every party contesting the election, and especially the opposition, should receive equal attention, and this is where The Herald’s reporting has been particularly unbalanced. Instead of pressing National for policy details and what it intends to do should it be in government post-election, the public has been fed a diet of “fluffy” articles about John Key and his “meteoric” rise in opinion polls. The public deserves better than this. 

 From the very outset The Herald took an alarmist approach to the Electoral Finance Act, labeling it an attack on democracy. While significant editorial coverage was devoted to exploring the possible implications of the Bill, the same was not given to the underlying reasons for the introduction of the Bill in the first place, namely the antics of the National Party during the 2005 general election. Instead, The Herald chose to run with a completely unsubstantiated line that the Bill was simply an attempt by Labour to entrench its position in government. What was called for was an assessment of National’s use of secret trusts to fund its election campaigns and media pressure for the party to come clean on who it was that was contributing to these trusts. If free speech is the first hallmark of democracy, then transparency must run a close second.

The Herald’s reporting of any event surrounding the government has since tended to involve intense analysis, whilst the opposition has been largely left to its own devices. Particularly alarming has been the suggestion, often explicit, in a number of articles and editorials that the Labour government will not and should not be the government following the 2008 election. One has to ask whether The Herald has broken down the boundary between informing the citizenry and telling the citizenry what to think. Of course, journalists are human and as such any reporting carries an element of opinion, however that opinion must be restrained if balance and fairness are to be upheld. Recent coverage of political issues indicate that The Herald has no intention of improving its journalism practices. Of particular note was Audrey Young’s coverage of the Owen Glen affair, which, in some cases, was almost entirely speculation awaiting confirmation by facts. Such reporting should worry every New Zealander.

The Herald appears to have positioned itself as the self-proclaimed saviour of democracy, but it is debatable whether The Herald even has the integrity to advance such a position given previous events in New Zealand politics which have failed to attract its attention, a prime example being the enactment of the Foreshore and Seabed Act. Where was the saviour of democracy here? Where was The Herald when Maori rights to due process were completely railroaded? Where were the daily front page articles decrying this attack on democracy? Where were the alarmist headlines and monthly photo montages of all those MPs supporting the legislation? Where were the attempts to hold the government to account over this? If simply limiting, as has been claimed, the free speech of citizens is an attack that goes right to the heart of our democracy, then surely completely removing one’s right to access the courts is a death blow. The Herald obviously didn’t see things this way, and their campaign against the Electoral Finance Bill must thus be hollow, or perhaps The Herald just has a very selective view about what democracy actually is. 

 

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