Key’s Hollow Promise On Winston
John Key has stated that Winston Peters will not be a Minister in a National-lead government unless he can give a “credible explanation” for the discrepancies between his version of events surrounding the Owen Glen affair, and the letter from Owen Glen himself. Of course, this is just a hollow promise and hopefully the electorate will see it for that.
Firstly, one can never rule Winston Peters out, and there is always the possibility that he will hold the balance of power after the election. It is unlikely that the Greens and the Maori Party will support a National government, so if National is left without enough support to take the Treasury benches it is highly unlikely they will forgo the opportunity simply because Key made some half-hearted pledge not to work with Winston.
Secondly, Key has left himself an out. As long as Winston can provide a “credible” explanation, then there are no barriers to him joining a National Cabinet. Going by what passes as “credible” within the National Party these days, it shouldn’t be hard for Winston to meet this test.
Thirdly, ruling out working with Winston does not necessarily rule out working with New Zealand First.
Key is obviously trying to take some sort of moral high ground in this whole affair but, like anything that comes from his Crosby-Textor handbook, it is simply a façade to gain public confidence. Key might well be cutting of his nose to spite his face.
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The Real Cost Of Cheese
Thanks To SO For The Use Of Her Cartoon!
The Truth Really Does Hurt……If You’re National
Having had a couple of days to think things over, John Key has gone on the attack over the “secret” recordings of Bill English and Lockwood Smith telling the truth at National’s annual conference over the weekend. On Breakfast this morning, Key tried to shift the focus from the content of the recordings to the fact they were made in the first place. He first tried to blame Young Labour, saying they tried to “infiltrate” the conference (which wouldn’t be all that hard – just put on a suit and act like an arrogant wanker and even Key himself would think you’d been a supporter for life) . Next he tried to pin it all on Helen Clark and Nicky Hager. Then, showing his desperation to make this whole issue go away, Key suggested the tapes might not be “actually sort of completely real”, afterall there are many Bill English imposters out there.
Of course the real issue here is that National has clearly been lying to the public and continues to do so, and it is somewhat ironic that Key has assured voters that he would be an accountable Prime Minister, yet has failed to take any responsibility for National’s indiscretions. And as if to confirm that National has an outbreak of “the lies” within its caucus, Key stated this afternoon:
“We don’t speak in sound bites, we don’t speak in press releases but effectively if every single word you say is going to be recorded then that’s the way you have to speak.”
Now, John Key knows as well as anyone that sound bites and press releases are all the public has had from National for the past year or so; after all, it is the golden rule of the Crosby-Textor handbook. Key also indicated National may complain to the police over the recordings, and they are already picking through video surveillance of the conference in an effort to reveal the culprit. This simply begs the question: why was National secretly recording their own delegates? Seems even National doesn’t trust its own.
In a display of hypocrisy, Key also called on Helen Clark to take some responsibility and state publicly whether or not she condones “secret” recordings. That is quite ironic given Key did no such thing when secret recordings of Mike Williams were circulating earlier this year. In fact, his deputy made the following statements at the time:
“Mike Williams has been caught red-handed saying one thing behind closed doors and another thing to the public…Mr Williams can’t be relied on to tell the public the truth, yet Helen Clark is defending him. This is an indictment on her judgment.”
That is the ultimate proof that National is nothing but a bunch of lying hypocrites.
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Bill English Translated
For a party that paints itself as honest, it certainly is strange that the National hierarchy has forced Bill English to apologise for telling the truth. Anyway, we all know Bill doesn’t say what he means in public, so his apology today needs some translating:
What Bill Said: “Statements of mine secretly recorded at a social function last Friday and published over the weekend have caused confusion and concern about National’s policy on Kiwibank and Working for Families”
What Bill Meant: We scared the voters.
What Bill Said: “I did not choose my words well”
What Bill Meant: I told the truth.
What Bill Said: “We have worked for several years to find a better way of allowing families to keep their own income”
What Bill Meant: We tried to come up with our own policies
What Bill Said: “We opted to retain the existing structure because we were not willing to create uncertainty for families under pressure. If we are elected we will work to improve the system for families without reducing entitlements”
What Bill Meant: But Labour’s were too damn good!
What Bill Said: “With respect to Kiwibank, I shouldn’t have made the comments I made. National has had no discussions about Kiwibank and has no plans to sell it”
What Bill Meant: I departed from Crosby-Textor guidelines. Crosby-Textor says National has had no discussions about Kiwibank and has no plans to sell it.
What Bill Said: “Comments I made regarding the complexity of WFF have been construed as criticism of John Key. That is wrong.”
What Bill Meant: John’s really really smart. Honestly!
What Bill Said: “My repeated responses to this question yesterday reflected my determination not to widen the debate – not an attempt to criticize John Key”
What Bill Meant: I was just trying to stick to Crosby-Textor guidelines. Crosby-Textor say John is really really smart. Honestly!
What Bill Said: “I should have made it clear that I meant no such criticism and I’m making that clear today”
What Bill Meant: John’s worried I’ll pull another 2002. I should just have kept lying.
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Opinion Polls Show Confusing Picture
Two opinion polls released by ONE News and TV3 tonight give a rather confused picture of the public’s political preferences.
The ONE news Colmar Brunton poll has National gaining 4 points, taking them to 54-percent, while Labour remain stable on 35-percent. In the small party stakes, support for the Greens halves to 3.7-percent, with the Maori Party, NZ First and Act sitting on 3.2-percent, 1.5-percent, and 1.1-percent respectively.
In the preferred Prime Minister stakes, both John Key and Helen Clark register a drop in their support, taking them to 35-percent and 29-percent respectively.
In contrast, the TV3 poll presents a completely different picture. In their poll, National drops 3 points, while Labour picks up 3 points, taking them to 48-percent and 38-percent respectively. This 10-point gap is significantly smaller than the 19-point deficit shown in the ONE News poll.
Of the smaller parties, the Greens drop slightly to 5.8-percent, and both NZ First and the Maori Party increase slightly to 3.4-percent and 2.9-percent respectively. ACT and United Future barely register.
In the preferred PM stakes, Clark regains the position as New Zealand’s preferred PM for the first time in a year, picking up 4 points to 32-percent, while Key drops a massive 6 points to 29-percent. However, the poll has more good news for Helen Clark, with 62-percent of those polled thinking she is performing better than she has in two years. Meanwhile, Key registers a drop in those who think he is performing well to 52-percent, and a 4 point increase in those who think he is performing poorly.
The polls certainly do send mixed messages about the public mood at the moment. Although, it would appear the ONE News poll is out of step with other recent polls which have shown a mood shift toward Labour. The ONE News poll also tends to over-represent National Party support, and the TV3 poll was the most reliable leading up to the 2005 general election.
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Labour In Good Spirits
Labour Party President Mike Williams has admitted feeling “miserable” about Labour’s position at the start of the year. With opinion polls showing them trailing National and a number of issues dogging the government, anyone could be forgiven for thinking things were turning to custard. However, four months on and Williams says Labour is in very good spirits, and for good reason too. Labour has continued to roll out progressive policies that actually make a difference to New Zealanders and, perhaps more importantly for the looming election, John Key has finally come under the sort of scrutiny that was so lacking when he began his tenure as Leader of the Opposition.
In an article by Audrey Young in the Weekend Herald, Williams states:
“In 1990 we knew we were going to get thrashed. There was all that ‘change the leader, change the policy’ kind of stuff. There is certainly not that sense. I think there is a sense out in the party that we are in with a chance.”
If the recent criticism of Key’s leadership abilities and the improvement in Labour’s fortunes in recent opinion polls is anything to go by, then it would appear that they are in with more than a “chance”. And all indications are that Labour will be a formidable opponent come November.
Michael Cullen has also stated that 2007 was probably a year Labour would rather forget, and although things may have got off to a bad start, he too says Labour’s is in high spirits at the moment, citing three main reasons for this:
The first is general satisfaction within the caucus and wider party that the Government is sticking to its core principles. “There is a feeling we have been doing good things for New Zealand, which is consistent with our traditions and our philosophy.”
The second is stable leadership. “There is no leadership issue. It is absolutely obvious to anybody that Helen is absolutely secure in her position. That issue is not even discussed in the Labour caucus. It is not a matter for any speculation.”
Reason No. 3 is that the party has regained policy momentum. “After some problems last year, I think we feel that we are re-establishing slowly that image of competence, of getting on with the business of Government and, indeed, to a significant extent we’ve captured the policy agenda so far this year – we have been leading on policy, which is a happier place to be in than feeling as though you are being entirely reactive.”
Labour certainly has been leading on the policy front, in contrast to National which has yet to reveal any substantial policy to the electorate, and will no doubt continue to do this leading up to this year’s election. If there is one thing that Labour needs to win the election, it is a strong morale within their ranks and a belief in the policies they have been rolling out. And they have this by the bucket load.
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Key Feeling The Heat
John Armstrong has a good piece in the Weekend Herald on the recent quietness that has decended over National in the past week. With the party grabbing few, if any, headlines and Key not asking a single question in the House, Armstrong concludes that National has gone into a state of “suspended animation”.
Of course, this has only increased Labour’s drive to put pressure on Key, and it appears to be paying off, with Key chosing to release National’s $50 victim compensation scheme in Auckland rather than Wellington. On this, Armstrong says:
“Labour was not alone in seeing the decision to release the policy in Auckland as a sign of Key’s gun shyness in the face of the Wellington political media following his widely publicised slip-up over National’s Treaty policy and the fuzziness which surrounded National’s stance on the sale of shares in Auckland Airport to foreign interests.”
It certainly seems as though the pressure finally being applied by the media has taken Key by surprise, and his strategy now is to avoid them altogether. Of course, National has been under the somewhat arrogant illusion that they could simply coast along during the election and gain the Treasury benches without letting the public know what eaxctly it intended to do once there. However, recent weeks have delivered a wake-up call to the party, and they appear to have lost the political agenda altogether. As Armstrong says:
“The Labour fightback has seen National lose control of the political agenda which it was setting at the start of the year.
Labour is largely dictating things, partly by using the advantage of Government incumbency and partly through a steady stream of fresh, politically seductive policy initiatives, many of which have the secondary purpose of trying to force Key to say whether they would survive under a National-led Government.”
And since National has moved toward the left and flip-flopped on a number of Labour initiatives, Labour’s strategy has been to continue releasing attractive policies that National can’t commit to and thus make it increasingly difficult for Key to keep National centrist. On this Armstrong states:
“Labour, meanwhile, is playing an extremely clever game. Key may have moved National to the centre to take votes off Labour. Labour is now trying to crowd him out by putting up centrist policies and challenging him to back them.
If he does, National’s brand distinction fades and its flexibility to spend money is further constrained. If he doesn’t, he is painted as extreme and out of touch with middle NZ.
Likewise, Cullen’s admission his tax cuts will be smaller than National’s may have been a similar ploy.
If Cullen can make his cuts as large as possible, that puts the onus on National to deliver even bigger ones.
If National doesn’t do so, it again loses vital brand distinction.
If National is a lot more generous, it becomes easier for Cullen to brand his opponents as fiscally irresponsible.”
This is a very clever strategy indeed, and one suspects that in the coming weeks and months things will certainly become a lot more difficult for Key than they have been in the past. Far from coasting along to victory, National will be forced to prove to New Zealand what it is they have to offer and actually work to win the public’s vote. It appears this has come as quite a shock to many within the party’s “inner circle”.
Flip-Flop Key
It seems John Key is certainly living up to his title of “Master of Flip-Flops”, as this photo of his Kumeu electorate office clearly shows. Nice to see the Leader of the Opposition being honest with the public for once, and in such shameless fashion too!
Jon Johansson On Key
Victoria University political scientist, Jon Johansson, makes a number of good observations in and article on leadership in this week’s Listener. Johansson specialises in studying leadership, and of John Key he says:
“He has blurted for as long as he has been leader. He has said disparate things to different audiences – not smart. He is learning that you get found out.”
Certainly, this has been made no more apparent than in the past month where Key has been caught out on a number of issues, and his incompetency’s and inexperience exposed. Johansson points out, and quite rightly, that Key has only come under pressure in recent times, and I suspect this new found scrutiny has been reflected in the recent Herald-DigiPoll. Media, and definitely public, scrutiny up until now has been almost non-existent, and has allowed Key to simply coast along without having to present anything substantial to the electorate. On this, Johansson warns:
“Voters, the media and MPs themselves are too credulous with new leaders, too accepting of what they say”
This fact has certainly been essential to National’s current fortunes in the polls, but may prove fatal in the long run. Key appears to have been lead into a false sense of security that the so-called “mood for change” will be enough to sweep Helen Clark and Labour out of the Beehive. However, if March is anything to go by, the recent mood change within the media, and the public at large, is for Key to demonstrate, without rhetoric, smart clichés, or unsubstantial one-liners, how exactly a National government would improve the lives of New Zealanders.
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Labour Gaining Ground
The latest Herald-DigiPoll shows resurgence in support for Labour, at the expense of National. Support for National has dropped 4.6 points to 49.9-percent, while Labour has picked up 2.8 points to 39.3-percent. Of course most, if not all, of National’s drop in support can be attributed to John Key’s poor performance this month, and The Herald states March as being:
“…a month memorable for slip-ups and lackluster performances by leader John Key.”
On the other hand, Labour’s approach under the pragmatic leadership of Helen Clark has simply been to get on with governing, and the progressive release of policy seems to have paid off. As The Herald says, March has involved:
“…carefully designed publicity hits for the Government, including a snap move to try to keep strategic assets such as Auckland Airport in New Zealand control.”
Certainly, Helen Clark has always maintained that the gap between Labour and National will close once either party begins releasing policy, and one expects that gap to continue closing over the next few months.
In the preferred PM stakes things are much tighter, with Key on 45.9-percent and Clark on 45.6-percent. It is quite interesting that, while National seem to have a clear edge over Labour at the moment, the public aren’t at all sure about the leadership of John Key. I suspect this is what is going to hurt National come the election.
In the minor parties, The Greens dropped half a point to 3.9-percent; NZ First is down 1 point to 1.1-percent; The Maori Party picks up 2.2 points, taking them to 3.7-percent; Act gains 0.7 points to 1.1-percent; and United Future doesn’t register.
Labour will certainly take some solace from this latest poll, and will give them momentum to keep the heat on Key, and force him to have more months like March.
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First Leader’s Debate
TVNZ launches the new channel 7 on Freeview this coming Monday, and from 12pm-2pm Guyon Espiner will host the first leader’s debate for this year’s election. The ‘Kingmaker Debate” will only feature the leaders of the minor parties, so no Helen Clark or John Key, but it will definitely be interesting to see how the smaller parties are positioning themselves for post-election negotiations. I suspect they will have some strong words for both Labour and National. For those not lucky enough to have Freeview, TVNZ will have a live internet feed here, or you can wait for the highlights on TV One at midnight.
Key vs Bush: Not That Dissimilar
John Key made a rather curious statement during an interview on Breakfast this morning. During questions from Paul Henry regarding National’s knee-jerk decision to bring forward the start date of their tax cut package, Key said New Zealanders were:
“Hugely struggling to pay their mortgages at the pump”
Butchering of the English language aside, how exactly does one “pay their mortgage at the pump”?
The similarities between John Key and George Bush become more and more apparent every time either of them opens their mouth.
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